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Helpful know-it-alls - weather decisionsJuly, 2002. Papeete, Tahiti. RED had an appointment with high tide in Aitutaki in three days. We were determined to revisit Aitutaki with RED to show her to our many friends there, and because the pass had silted up in the 11 years since our last visit, we absolutely had to catch the spring tides if we had any hope at all of getting in. The weather was "maramu winds" which are reinforced trades, 25 to 35 knots from the southeast. Quite a bit of wind, but nothing dangerous. No one else was moving because of the strong winds, of course. As we were leaving we got a call from the woman who more-or-less ran the local cruisers radio network. She wanted to be sure that we were aware of the weather (we were, of course), and told us that we shouldn't leave! Folks, Beth and I had an exceptional boat in RED, 25 years of experience, and over 40,000 miles behind us by then, and we are quite capable of making our own decisions concerning whether we can safely make a given passage. Furthermore, this individual had never met us! She didn't know RED, she didn't know our capabilities, our experience, or the reasons behind the timing of our departure. She had a fraction of the experience we had. In spite of this, she felt she was competent to make decisions that would affect us! She was completely out of line. Weather forecastsBy the way, this was the same individual who, when giving the weather over the morning net, phrased it like this: "From the GRIB files, the wind tomorrow will be..., and the wind in two days will be, and the wind in four days will be..." The problem is those two words, will be; the wind might be. Until we get a better handle on foretelling the future, you should not count on forecasts beyond a day or two. This is another case of the inexperienced believing implicitly in stuff delivered by technology; the same thing as relying on potentially flawed information on computer charts. AitutakiWe had a fast (600nm in 74 hours) but uneventful, though bumpy, passage to Aitutaki and we made our appointment with high tide. We needed every inch of high tide, too; we still ploughed a furrow in the pass for 100 yards or so on our way in and out. |
